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Lidt nyt fra olieland :-(
Fra : kim.frederiksen@gmai~


Dato : 08-05-08 03:51

Fra Bloomberg news:

"Barclays Raises 2008 Crude Oil Forecast to $116.90 (Update2)

By Christian Schmollinger and Sophie Tan

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Capital raised its forecast for U.S.
crude oil prices this year by 16 percent, citing stronger demand from
China and the Middle East and declines in production at non-OPEC
countries.

Barclays increased its average estimate for West Texas Intermediate,
the physical grade for oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, to $116.90 a barrel from its previous prediction of $100.80.

``Non-OPEC supply remains weak and continues to under perform
dramatically relative to consensus expectations,'' Barclays said in a
May 7 report, led by commodity research analyst Paul Horsnell.

China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, has more than
doubled oil use since New York crude dropped to this decade's low of
$16.70 a barrel on Nov. 19, 2001. Record prices have failed to stem
rising consumption in developing nations.

Crude futures for June delivery in New York rose $1.69, or 1.4
percent, to settle at $123.53 a barrel yesterday, the highest close
since trading began in 1983, on signs that the U.S. economy is
improving and may spur energy demand.

``We are in a phase during which the nature of the fundamentals is
being revealed by the ascent of prices,'' the report said.

Supply Response

The supply response from oil-producing nations outside of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been weak, with
Russia ``having been added to the already-significant list of supply
disappointments,'' the report said.

The drop in oil demand in the 30 developed nations, including the
U.S., Japan and Germany, represented by Paris- based Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development ``has not been consistently large
enough to bring global demand growth much below 1 million barrels a
day,'' the report said.

``Non-OECD demand growth remains robust, most particularly China,
Middle East and India,'' Horsnell said. ``The decline in OECD demand
started in 2005 hasn't accelerated significantly.''

Alternative energy sources aren't being developed fast enough to stop
fossil fuel prices from going higher and Barclays estimates the new
investment flow into commodity indexes during the first quarter is $2
billion, which has gone mostly into agriculture and precious metals,
not energy, the report said.

``Biofuels look set to be smashed against political rocks, oil sands
lack scale and are being enveloped in carbon and other issues,'' the
report said. ``There is no evidence for the price rise this year being
due to speculation, exchange rates or flows of funds into
commodities.''

The push to increase biofuel usage as a means to reduce carbon
emissions has driven prices for staple foods such as rice and wheat to
records as farmers convert more land to grow palm and soy beans to
benefit from government subsidies.

Global food prices rose 57 percent in March from a year earlier,
according to the United Nations. The World Bank says civil
disturbances may be triggered by rising food prices in 33 countries.
Rice, the food staple for half the world, has more than doubled in the
past year. "

jojo ... det finder markedet da lige en løsning på - eller også
opfinder vi da lige en alternativ energiform (der ikke eksisterer),
som kan tage over efter olien

"We are in a phase during which the nature of the fundamentals is
being revealed by the ascent of prices"'

/Kim

 
 
Kim Larsen (08-05-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Kim Larsen


Dato : 08-05-08 11:07

"kim.frederiksen@gmail.com" greb fat i sit tastatur og skrev følgende indlæg
news:cf7bc94e-9a2e-48da-95ef-899768207f7e@b1g2000hsg.googlegroups.com:
> Fra Bloomberg news:
>
> "Barclays Raises 2008 Crude Oil Forecast to $116.90 (Update2)
>
> By Christian Schmollinger and Sophie Tan
>
> May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Capital raised its forecast for U.S.
> crude oil prices this year by 16 percent, citing stronger demand from
> China and the Middle East and declines in production at non-OPEC
> countries.
>
> Barclays increased its average estimate for West Texas Intermediate,
> the physical grade for oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile
> Exchange, to $116.90 a barrel from its previous prediction of $100.80.
>
> ``Non-OPEC supply remains weak and continues to under perform
> dramatically relative to consensus expectations,'' Barclays said in a
> May 7 report, led by commodity research analyst Paul Horsnell.
>
> China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, has more than
> doubled oil use since New York crude dropped to this decade's low of
> $16.70 a barrel on Nov. 19, 2001. Record prices have failed to stem
> rising consumption in developing nations.
>
> Crude futures for June delivery in New York rose $1.69, or 1.4
> percent, to settle at $123.53 a barrel yesterday, the highest close
> since trading began in 1983, on signs that the U.S. economy is
> improving and may spur energy demand.
>
> ``We are in a phase during which the nature of the fundamentals is
> being revealed by the ascent of prices,'' the report said.
>
> Supply Response
>
> The supply response from oil-producing nations outside of the
> Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been weak, with
> Russia ``having been added to the already-significant list of supply
> disappointments,'' the report said.
>
> The drop in oil demand in the 30 developed nations, including the
> U.S., Japan and Germany, represented by Paris- based Organization for
> Economic Cooperation and Development ``has not been consistently large
> enough to bring global demand growth much below 1 million barrels a
> day,'' the report said.
>
> ``Non-OECD demand growth remains robust, most particularly China,
> Middle East and India,'' Horsnell said. ``The decline in OECD demand
> started in 2005 hasn't accelerated significantly.''
>
> Alternative energy sources aren't being developed fast enough to stop
> fossil fuel prices from going higher and Barclays estimates the new
> investment flow into commodity indexes during the first quarter is $2
> billion, which has gone mostly into agriculture and precious metals,
> not energy, the report said.
>
> ``Biofuels look set to be smashed against political rocks, oil sands
> lack scale and are being enveloped in carbon and other issues,'' the
> report said. ``There is no evidence for the price rise this year being
> due to speculation, exchange rates or flows of funds into
> commodities.''
>
> The push to increase biofuel usage as a means to reduce carbon
> emissions has driven prices for staple foods such as rice and wheat to
> records as farmers convert more land to grow palm and soy beans to
> benefit from government subsidies.
>
> Global food prices rose 57 percent in March from a year earlier,
> according to the United Nations. The World Bank says civil
> disturbances may be triggered by rising food prices in 33 countries.
> Rice, the food staple for half the world, has more than doubled in the
> past year. "
>
> jojo ... det finder markedet da lige en løsning på - eller også
> opfinder vi da lige en alternativ energiform (der ikke eksisterer),
> som kan tage over efter olien
>
> "We are in a phase during which the nature of the fundamentals is
> being revealed by the ascent of prices"'
>
> /Kim

Vi skal vist snart til at finde en anden type brændstof at køre på

--
Kim Larsen
Socialist, republikaner, EU-tilhænger og atomkraftmodstander.
Tag et kig på: http://dokusiden.frac.dk/ground69.htm
Genstart Danmark, stem socialistisk. E-mail: kl2607@gmail.com


kim.frederiksen@gmai~ (08-05-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : kim.frederiksen@gmai~


Dato : 08-05-08 04:51

On 8 Maj, 12:07, "Kim Larsen" <kl2...@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> Vi skal vist snart til at finde en anden type brændstof at køre på
>

Hvis det bare var gjort med det. Når de fleste mennesker hører om
oliekrise, tænker de i forhold til hvad benzinen koster. En oliekrise
går langt, langt videre end prisen på brændstof. Der fremstilles i
tusindvis af produkter af olie, bl.a. kunstgødning som er en
forudsætning for et effektivt landbrug der kan mætte de mange munde
verden over. Desuden fremstilles der i hundredevis af
medicinalprodukter, der ikke lader sig fremstile på anden vis. Værst
af alt er dog de konflikter der vil opstå i kølvandet på oliemangelen.
Vi har allerede set de første eksempler i form af borgerkrigslignende
tilstande, da brændstofprisen fordobledes i Burma. Oliekrisen vil (har
allerede) medført en global fødevarekrise, som kun bliver værre. Vi er
ikke gearet til at leve uden olie, og er med sikkerhed villige til at
gå i krig for at få olien.

I virkeligheden handler det her om overbefolkning. Det er givet at
Verden har en øvre grænse for fødevare og energi -produktion. Når
befolkningstallet rammer denne grænse går det galt. I Vesten har vi
befolkningstilvæksten under kontrol. Det har den 3. verden ikke. Så
længe det ikke sker, vil befolkningstallet blive øget over den
bæredygtige grænse, indtil hungersnøs og /eller krige rydder op.

mvh.
Kim Frederiksen

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