http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/business/worldbusiness/28oil-WEB.html?ei=5087&em=&en=09dee92a464a0222&ex=1209528000&pagewanted=print
April 28, 2008
Amid High Oil Prices, Danger Signs in Production
By JAD MOUAWAD
As oil prices soared to record levels in recent years, basic economics suggested that consumption
would fall and supply would rise as producers opened the taps to pump more.
But as prices flirt with $120 a barrel, many energy specialists are becoming worried that neither
seems to be happening. Higher prices have done little to attract new production or to suppress
global demand, and the resulting mismatch has sent oil prices spiraling upward.
"According to normal economic theory, and the history of oil, rising prices have two major effects,"
said Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the International Energy Agency, which advises
industrialized countries. "They reduce demand and they induce oil supplies. Not this time."
A key reason that supply is not rising to meet demand is that producers outside of the OPEC cartel -
countries like Russia, Mexico and Norway - have been showing troubling signs of sluggishness. Unlike
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose explicit goal is to regulate supply to
keep prices up, the other countries are the free traders of the international market, with every
incentive to produce flat-out at a time of high prices.
But for a variety of reasons, like sharply higher drilling costs and nationalistic policies that
restrict foreign investments, these countries are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to
increase output. They seem stuck at about 50 million barrels of oil a day, or 60 percent of the
world's oil supplies, with few prospects for growth.
Countries that are not members of OPEC have been the main source of production growth in the last
three decades, as new fields were discovered in Alaska, the North Sea or West Africa. After the
collapse of the Soviet Union, new opportunities emerged in Russia and the Caspian Sea.
Analysts at Barclays Capital said last week that non-OPEC supplies were "seemingly dead in the
water." Goldman Sachs raised similar concerns last month, saying that growth in non-OPEC supplies
"can no longer be taken for granted."
At the same time, oil consumption keeps expanding at a faster clip than production. Demand is
forecast to increase this year by 1.2 million barrels a day, to 87.2 million barrels a day. In the
United States, the world's most oil-thirsty nation, consumption has actually fallen a bit because of
the economic slowdown.
But that drop is being offset by growth in other countries. World consumption is projected to rise
35 percent, to around 115 million barrels a day, in the next two decades. Most of the growth will
come from China, India and oil-producing countries in the Middle East, where retail fuel prices are
subsidized, encouraging wasteful consumption.
"What is disturbing here is that things seem to get worse, not better," an analyst at Goldman Sachs,
David Greely, said. "These high prices are not attracting meaningful new supplies."
Oil rose 23 cents Monday to $118.75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Longer-term oil futures,
dated for 2013, now trade at $108 a barrel, a strong indication that investors see little cause for
prices to drop in the next five years - partly because of low expectations about production growth.
The outlook for oil supplies "signals a period of unprecedented scarcity," an analyst at CIBC World
Markets, Jeff Rubin, said last week.
Oil prices might reach more than $200 by 2012, he said, a level that would probably mean $7-a-gallon
gasoline in the United States.
Some regions are simply running out of reserves. Norway's production has slumped by 25 percent since
its peak in 2001. In Britain, oil production has plummeted 43 percent in eight years. The North Sea
is now considered a dying oil basin. Alaska's giant field at Prudhoe Bay has declined 65 percent
since its peak 20 years ago.
In many other places, the problems are not located below ground, as energy executives like to put
it, but above ground. Higher petroleum taxes and more costly licensing agreements, scarce manpower
and swelling costs, as well as political wrangling and violence, are making it much harder to raise
production.
"It's a crunch," said J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy, an energy consulting firm in
Washington. "The world is not running out of oil, but rather it's running out of oil production
capacity."
Recently, the case that has attracted the most attention is Mexico, the second-biggest exporter to
the United States, which seems increasingly helpless to stem the collapse of its largest oil field,
Cantarell. Last week, the country's state-owned oil company, Pemex, said that production had fallen
300,000 barrels a day so far this year to 2.9 million barrels a day, a stunning drop from its peak
production of 3.4 million in 2004.
A combination of falling production and rising domestic consumption could wipe out Mexico's exports
within five years, including the 1.5 million barrels it sends to the United States each day.
Another country, Russia, is also clouding analysts' forecasts. The country is not exactly running
out of places to look for oil - a huge chunk of Eastern Siberia remains unexplored - and Russia has
been the biggest contributor to the growth in energy supplies in the last decade.
But earlier this month, Russian energy officials warned that the days of stunning growth that
followed the demise of the Soviet Union were over, as the country would focus on stabilizing its
output. Russia today produces about 10 million barrels of oil a day, up from a low point of 6
million barrels in 1996.
About 75 percent of the world's oil reserves are in OPEC countries, where governments voluntarily
restrict their output to push up prices. As countries like Russia slow output, analysts say OPEC
will have to pick up the slack. The oil cartel currently accounts for 40 percent of the world's oil
exports.
Further clouding the picture, Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, signaled last week that it
might have trouble increasing its production.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, signaled it would freeze any further expansion after next
year. That dims the long-range outlook for OPEC supplies, though in the near term, Saudi Arabia is
expected to loom larger in the market as it completes a $50 billion plan to increase its capacity to
12.5 million barrels a day. Yet that leaves it well short of the 15 million barrels that most
experts expected the kingdom to produce in the long run.
The cartel's 13 members say they plan to spend $150 billion to expand capacity by 5 million barrels
a day by 2012, according to estimates by OPEC. But that falls short of most projections, which say
OPEC will need to pump 60 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 36 million barrels a day
today, to meet the expected growth in demand.
Reaching that level is going to be impossible unless the violence and tensions in both Iran and Iraq
are resolved, analysts said. Because of sanctions for the last 30 years, both countries have been
producing much less than their huge oil reserves would permit.
Not everyone has a pessimistic outlook. The Energy Department forecasts sustained growth in non-OPEC
supplies this year and next. A study by the National Petroleum Council, an industry group that
provides advice to the secretary of energy, outlined a variety of possibilities for oil expansion,
and concluded that the world still had plenty of petroleum resources that could be tapped.
In fact, high prices have sparked a global dash for oil. Companies are trawling deep oceans or
seeking to drill in the Arctic Ocean. In some cases, the hunt has been successful. Brazil, for
example, has struck large offshore discoveries that could turn the country into one of the world's
top 10 producers in the coming decade. Yet it takes years to bring such remote fields into
production, and the market needs oil now.
To make up the shortfall, the world is increasingly turning to fuels made from unconventional
sources, like biofuels or heavy oil. Canadian tar sands, for example, have attracted large
investments, and biofuels have accounted for much of the growth in fuel supplies in the last two
years.
The International Energy Agency estimates that current investments will be insufficient to replace
declining oil production, let alone increase overall output. The energy agency said it would take
$5.4 trillion by 2030 to increase global output, a level of investment that is unlikely to be met.
It said a crisis "involving an abrupt run-up in prices" could not be ruled out before 2015.
Jan Rasmussen