In the good, old days, the MAD logic reigned supreme. (MAD = Mutually
Assured Destruction).
If the USA hurled intercontinental nuclear rockets at the Soviet Union, the
Russians would detect the assault by radar within minutes and would with
deadly certainty retaliate sending intercontinental ballistic missiles
against America.
And vice versa.
But in 2006, the time is out of joint. The world has lost its balance. We
have just experienced an Irananian war by proxy against Israel - not
entirely without success, an Iran which unabashedly continues enriching uran
for the use of producing atom bombs.
Can Israel in this situation trust a new breed of MAD logic, a new balance
between the nuclear capabilities of Israel and Iran to grow up in due course
?
Israel will probably not take up the bet. Rather should we be inclined to
believe that Israel will consider the dawning Iranian nuclear capability a
deadly threat to Israel's existence.
The head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, has calculated the appearance of the first
Iranian atom bombs to occur some time between 2007 and 2009.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=49984
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/12/30/112612.shtml
2007 - that is 3 ½ months from now. And as you know, the nuclear programmes
of very keen (and fearful) nations are apt to "give birth" prematurely. It
applied to the USA in 1945, to the Soviet Union in 1949 and, recently, to
North Korea.
Then, are there any other realistic options for Israel (and USA) than to
destroy the nuclear capability of Iran ? Probably not.
Theoretically, a raid against the Iranian nuclear capability is not
unfeasible. But it is just as certain that it will be a very large project.
Israel and USA have the required capacity. And Iran knows that. But the
newcomers, the Iranians, do not find themselves in a situation, where they
can retaliate against an assault within minutes. This range of retribution
is quite simply not available to Iran.
Iran must realize that after an Israeli/American air bombardment of Iranian
nuclear facilities, air ports, etc., there will just be no Iranian
retributive capacity left at all.
Unless, of course, Iran strikes first. And considers itself, rightly or
wrongly, in the defensive and paradoxical situation that the retribution
must necessarily set in *before* the attack.
If there is to be any retribution at all.
See also:
http://www.contrapublishing.com/Afterdoomsday.pdf pp. 6-7
Steen Hjortsoe
Copenhagen
Denmark
Website:
http://www.contrapublishing.com
e-mail: contra@tdcspace.dk