What are the consequences of such an action?
"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think
we're
being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put
away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it." John
Lennon
Just when it seemed unlikely that domestic and international events
would
unfold to test an already incompetent US government, along comes the
acceleration of the movement to destroy Iran. That effort has been well
documented over the past few years in scores of articles and position
papers from the usual suspects in the media, think-tanks, and the Net.
What's missing in that coverage, though, is an understanding of the
consequences of such an action, or consequence management in Pentagon
parlance. More's the pity in this discussion, comes the knowledge that
the
majority of Americans who are calling for military action—from all
strata
of society--do so as if they were casually ordering a pizza from
Dominoes.
Just pick-up the cellphone and, while salivating, order the Iranian War
Special. Sit back and enjoy the pizza while watching the war coverage on
television and gruesome videos on the Net. Oooo..Ahhh, look at that
Specter Gunship at work! Whoa! Look at those body parts flying around.
Pass me another piece of pizza!
That attitude is indicative of an intellectually bankrupt society. Does
anyone in the USA think anymore? An attack on Iran would result in
thousands of casualties for both US and Iranian military personnel, most
of whom are youngsters. Civilian casualties would be in the many
thousands. The ripple effect from such an action would cause a chain
reaction of events that would spiral out of control. With no country, or
group of countries, capable of de-escalating such a conflict--save for
Russia and China--a world war could ensue. Certainly, the US government
is
no position to cope with the fallout, particularly if it deploys and
uses
tactical nuclear weapons. For some sane commentary on the matter, one
has
to rely on the lucid commentary of Martin Van Crevald over in Israel.
His
piece in Forward titled, Knowing Why Not to Bomb Iran is Half the Battle
(
www.forward.com) should be force-fed to supporters of an Iranian
invasion.
Hello United Free Kurdistan
According to a Reuters bulletin dated April 20th, Turkey has increased
its
troop presence in Kurdish dominated Southeastern Turkey by
40,000—bringing
the total to 290,000. The Turkish government made that move because the
American-backed Kurdish government in Northern Iraq/Kurdistan is likely
to
supply the Kurdistan Workers Party (PPK) with arms and intelligence on
Turkish military movements in Hakkari, Van, Sirnak and other major
cities
in the country. It is likely that insurgents in Iraq have been training
the PPK in the tactics that have been wildly successful against US
forces
in Iraq. Turkey has been ruthless in its oppression of the Kurds, as
Saddam Hussein was, and that practice, according to the Kurdish National
Congress (kncna.org), continues to this day with the Turkish Army's
secret
police, Jitem, terrorizing the Kurdish population. Reliefweb.net,
reports
that the Kurdish language was not legalized until 1991 and the Turkish
government had engaged in forced displacements as late as 2002 to
break-up
concentrations of the 20 million Kurds who reside in Turkey. Separatist
statements by Kurds or talk of recognizing the Armenian Genocide results
in doing some hard time in a Turkish jail.
The Turkish government has frequently complained about the duplicity of
the US government as it plays its Kurdish cards. The US has largely
stayed
away from Turkey's battle with its Kurds while actively supporting
Kurdish
groups in Iran and Syria with funds and arms. The creation of Kurdistan
in
Northern Iraq has infuriated Turkish leaders. When Condolezza Rice
visits
with Turkish officials in late April, these matters are sure to be
topics
of discussion.
Meanwhile in Iran, there are approximately four million Kurds who have
suffered a similar fate as their Turkish compatriots. The Kurds in Iran
are split on the type of revolt they want to run. One group formed in
January 2006, the Kurdish United Front, wants to work within the Iranian
system to gain equal rights. They likely receive funds from the US
government via the KNC and other outlets. A Kurdish insurgent group
known
as Pejak--supported by the US government and working with US Special
Forces and intelligence agencies on the ground--advocates the violent
overthrow of the Islamic government in Iran.
Back in Turkey, the Kurds are not the only problem. There are
accusations
by opponents of Turkish President Recep Ergodan that Turkey is becoming
a
theocracy. Facing an election in 2007, the last thing Ergodan needs is
to
be perceived as an Islamic radical and incur the wrath of opponents
supported by the Turkish military, which is to say the US military. The
World Peace Herald, wpherald.com, carried a story titled, Turkish PM
Tied
to Islamic Forces. "In increasingly bitter verbal exchanges with
President
Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Mr. Erdogan rejected charges that he is leading
Turkey
away from its secular system toward Islamic fundamentalism. Mr. Sezer's
latest broadside was a statement to the War Academy that 'religious
fundamentalism has reached dramatic proportions. Islamic fundamentalism
is
trying to infiltrate politics, education and the state, it is
systematically eroding values…'"
So, as the bombs fly over Iran, the Kurds would be likely to seize the
day
and fight for the recognition of a Kurdish state that deletes portions
of
present-day Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq
(
http://www.kncna.org/docs/map.asp ) from the map. This is no idle
dream.
The American based KNC openly advocates a United Free Kurdistan. One
day,
there will be a Kurdish state. That could be done in a non-violent
fashion
rather than as a consequence of a misguided military adventure against
Iran. Finally, an invasion of that country would likely involve Turkish
assets of some kind. As a member of NATO, Turkey houses tactical nuclear
weapons and, as reported by Ramin Jahanbegloo in the Daily Star,
"Participation by Turkey in a US/Israeli military operation is also a
factor [concerning Iran], following an agreement reached between the
Turks
and Israelis."
Central Asia and the Middle East would become a bloodbath one minute
after
an attack on Iran.
Bye Bye Pakistan
In Pakistan, the US is having its cake and eating too. US weapons and
technology are being used by the Pakistani dictatorship of President
Musharraf to suppress a revolt for independence by the people of
Balochistan (
http://www.bdd.sdnpk.org ), also home to Pakistan nuclear
tests in 1998 and a energy- rich province. The USA is also funding
anti-Pakistani insurgent groups in Bolochistan in order to infiltrate
drug
operations, the black market for nuclear weaponry, Taliban remnants, and
assorted Islamic resistance groups like Al Qa'da that have taken up
residence in the hinterlands of Balochistan. The US State Department's
2004 country report on Pakistan was effusive in its praise for Pakistan
indicating that it was the key ally in the Long War on Terror and that
Pakistan has its internal affairs under control. Yet the situation on
the
ground is quite different.
A February 2006 piece carried by sindhtoday.net/bs.htm has the following
headline: Chemical Gas, Gunship Copters Used Against Baloch People.
"Balochistan, the area's largest and resource-rich province of Islamic
Republic of Pakistan, has recently taken another blood bath where many
innocent people have been killed in an [Pakistani] army action.
[Pakistani] Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao has claimed that no children
or woman have been killed in the recent operation but photographs
released
show that many innocent children were brutally killed in bombardment, as
they can not be termed as terrorists."
Pakistan is suppressing news on the seriousness of its fight against the
Baloch. The number of killed-in action (KIA) its Army has incurred
combating the Boloch revolt is well over 100 with thousands wounded.
These
troopers are portrayed by Musharraf as casualties in the fight against
foreign terror when, in fact, its akin to a civil war: the Baloch are
fighting for independence.
India Monitor reported in January 2006 that "Senator Sanaullah Baloch, a
vocal and influential member of the Balochistan National Party…said that
if conditions continued to be as oppressive for the people of his home
province, we will have no option but to exercise our national right for
self-determination for a separate state...Today every Baloch knows that
Pakistan is a viable state only because of Balochistan...Pointing to the
natural resources and the strategic importance of the province in the
region, he said that the information revolution had made the world very
small and today the Baloch people could not be fooled, and wanted their
rights." (The dynamics of Kashmir, which threaten Pakistan's stability,
are beyond the scope of this piece).
As Iran is pummeled by US air strikes, and the Kurds make their move,
What
will the Baloch do? How will rebel groups like Al Qa'da respond? Will
they
rally to their Iranian comrades? Would the Pakistani military use a
tactical nuke to wipe out all its problems in Balochistan? What about
India's reaction? What will Turkmenistan and the rest of the Stans do?
Would Armenia side with the Turkish Kurds? How will the US troops in
Iraq
handle the fallout?
In another stellar example of incompetence, the USA-Indo nuclear deal
struck by President Bush with Prime Minister Singh this past March was
suppose to be a signal to Russia and China that the US is almighty. The
USA seemingly gave no thought to what the deal with a country that
refused
to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty might create. Pakistan has
vowed to increase its nuclear weapons capability. China has offered to
build reactors for Pakistan and can tinker with America's prosperity via
currency manipulation. Russian nuclear forces are being upgraded. Saudi
Arabia is alleged to have purchased tactical nukes and is starting its
own
commercial and military nuclear capability. In South America, Brazil has
ramped up production of its nuclear capabilities and will not allow
inspectors into certain nuke facilities. And there can be no question
that
Venezuela will develop a nuke program or, like Saudi Arabia, just buy
the
weapons outright on the black market.
You Say You Want a Revolution
Domestic factors in the USA have to be added to this already volatile
brew. The Red, White and Blue Revolt of retired US military generals
such
as Gregory Newbold and Anthony Zinni carried out in the US mainstream
media is fascinating. Their call for Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld's resignation is unprecedented in American wartime history and
indicates that the only credible opposition to a civilian leadership
gone
mad is the military and big corporations. That other party called the
Democrats are part of the problem and not the solution. As for President
Bush; he dutifully does what he's told by Cheney and Rumsfeld.
Take note that the generals are key players in investment companies like
Globesecnine (Newbold is co-founder of globesecnine.com) and Anthony
Zinni
is a board member of Veritas Capital (along with a who's who of former
US
military leaders). Wall Street helps fund these groups and they may have
figured, finally, that Rumsfeld is bad for the military and business
(read
Jeffrey St. Clair of counterpunch.org for more on that relationship). US
intelligence agencies like the CIA are always involved overtly or
covertly
in the investment/stock trading business, and likely have involvement in
these investment firms. They are saying something too: revenge is sweet.
With rebellion in the military and corporate ranks, and the potential
for
more indictments of Bush Administration's insiders (Karl Rove?) in the
Valerie Plame/Joe Wilson CIA case, one has to wonder how this group of
people could possibly manage the day-after realities of an Iranian
assault.
The USA is operating as if it really is an unchallenged superpower. What
kind of superpower has increasing poverty, homelessness, unemployment
and
can't even rebuild one of its premier cities—New Orleans—after a
hurricane? What kind of superpower refuses to make concessions, to
negotiate and treats other nations like China and Russia as inferior
entities? What nation is the Paper Tiger now? It never had to be this
way.
So what about Iran? The simple answer, in two parts, to all this madness
is to turn the Iranian matter over the the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO), a NATO-like security coalition led by China and
Russia. Iran is soon to become a member of that group anyway. Let the
SCO
monitor Iran as it builds its nuclear commercial and military
capability.
Iran wants to be a key energy player in a region it knows is dominated
by
Russia and China. The USA wants that black gold to come West and have
geopolitical control over Central Asia. It's never going to happen. It
is
inevitable that the Kurds and Baloch will have their independent states,
the Iranians and Brazilians will have their nuclear power/weapons, the
Chinese will have their ascendancy, the Russians will return to the
world
stage, and the Palestinians will get a fair shake one day.
Secondly, negotiate. More than ever, the USA needs to get back to the
negotiating table. Maybe some grand brain out there should read NSC-68,
Sec IX, authored in 1950 and designed to deal with the former Soviet
Union. "The free countries must always, therefore, be prepared to
negotiate and must be ready to take the initiative at times in seeking
negotiation. They must develop a negotiating position which defines the
issues and the terms on which they would be prepared--and at what
stages--to accept agreements... The terms must be fair in the view of
popular opinion... This means that they must be consistent with a
positive
program for peace--in harmony with the United Nations' Charter and
providing, at a minimum, for the effective control of all armaments by
the
United Nations or a successor organization."
Talking? Negotiating? Why not the SCO?
What an insane thought.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=STA20060
422&articleId=2319
--
regards, Peter Bjørn Perlsø
http://haxor.dk
http://liberterran.org
http://haxor.dk/fanaticism/