---

I dagens Jerusalem Post kan man på:

<http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1139395664385&pagename=JPost
%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter>

se en interessant artikel om udsigterne for det israelske valg på
tirsdag.

Men jeg ser også at landet må have indført en spærregrænse på 2%, lige
som i Danmark:

=
Smaller parties: Green Leaf, Herut, Hetz, Jewish National Front,
Pensioners Party, Shinui, Tafnit and others

The very fact that all these parties are still being grouped together is
proof that none of them has succeeded in emerging as a serious candidate
to pass the two percent voter threshold and make it into the Knesset.
The latest polls have shown that the small party with the best chance of
breaking the glass ceiling is the Pensioners Party, which is led by
former intelligence agent Rafi Eitan, who was Jonathan Pollard's Israeli
handler. All of these parties are counting on a very low turnout, which
would lower the threshold.
=

Af citatet ses i øvrigt også at det store sekulære midterparti bestående
især af agnostiske, russiske jøder , Shinui, står til helt af forsvinde.
De fleste af partiets Knesset-medlemmer er i forvejen gået med Ariel
Sharon og Shimon Peres til det nye Kadima-parti. Om hvilket det hedder:

=
Kadima

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's so-called "ranch forum" advisers - Reuven
Adler, Lior Chorev and Eyal Arad - have not had an easy job to do since
Sharon's stroke. Kadima's strategy was to paint the party as the one to
bring the country into the next stage of a historical process that began
with Herzl, continued with Ben-Gurion and proceeded to Sharon. That
picture might have persuaded many voters, but the jump to Olmert was a
tougher sell.

While conventional wisdom had it that the party's fall in the polls had
to do with corruption charges plaguing Kadima candidates, the descent
also coincided with Olmert's shift from behaving in a statesmanlike
manner after Sharon's stroke to being himself. Unlike Sharon, who could
get away with saying nothing but "trust me," Olmert has had to put all
his plans on the table. Because of this, the mandates Kadima wins on
March 28 will be to his credit and cannot be attributed solely to
Sharon's legacy.
=

Ja, lad os håbe at Kadima og Labour sammen vinder et flertal, så de kan
danne en flertalsregering sammen.

Som sammen vil definere en endelig østgrænse for Israel, samtidig med at
der kan dannes en palæstinensisk stat, med en eller anden ordning som
gør at de to dele, Gaza og Vestbredden, kan hænge sammen. Grænsen vil
naturligvis nogenlunde følge sikkerhedshegnet, men vil dog også
inkludere de tre største bosættelser uden for hegnet: Ma'ale Adumin ved
Jerusalem med 32.000 indbyggere, Gush Etzion syd for Bethlehem, 10 km
gennem tunnel fra Jerusalem, og Ariel med 20.000 indbyggere.

Jeg ved ikke hvor mange indbyggere Gush Etzion har, men man kan jo prøve
at finde dem her:

<http://www.gush-etzion.org.il/>
<http://go.ariel.muni.il/ariel/en/>
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maale_Adumin>

--
Per Erik Rønne
http://www.RQNNE.dk