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http://www.iran-daily.com/1384/2435/html/energy.htm#s108258

No Turning Back
The UK produced an average of 2.72 million barrels a day (mbpd) in 1999, hitting a high of 3.1 mbpd in August.
But by June 2005 this had fallen to 1.7 mbpd, a drop of 34%.
These declines do seem to be irreversible now," says Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale.
"In my experience, even when [oil] prices are extremely high and spending [on extraction] is extremely high,
it has been virtually impossible to reduce decline rates below 3%."

What is also interesting about the UK's declining oil output is that it has been rather consistent.
In 2000, production was down 8.1% from its 1999 high, then falling 6.8% in 2001.
The decline slowed to 0.5% in 2002, prompting calls that an output 'rebound' was on the cards.
But 2003 saw an 8.8% decline, rising to 10% in 2004.
This year has seen a similarly startling decline. In February, year-on-year levels were down 13%, rising to 17% in March.

Discovery Shortage
"The UK will eventually have to import," Mike Wittner argues.
"Declines will continue. There is only one new field of any size--the Buzzard field--set to come online.
Otherwise it's just bits and pieces." The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a slight
pick-up in UK output next year to 1.85 mbpd but it too sees a continuing decline to 1.66 mbpd in 2007.
Even the UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) says that declines are inevitable. Even with
increased spending of about £4.3bn a year, it believes the decline will still be about 7%.
A new round of oil field licenses handed out this year may also fail to stem the fall in crude production.

Gas Solution?
As Britain becomes a net importer of oil, as it first did this summer, not only does falling output cost money.
So does the very expensive energy--oil, gas and liquefied gas--bought to replace it.
In this respect, government figures do not provide much hope for North Sea gas output either.
Output fell 5.5% in the second quarter of 2005, according to DTI figures, while imports increased by 53.5%.
"Gas has replaced nearly all our power generation," says Dr. Smith.
"But gas has its own problems. UK gas imports are increasing dramatically but otherwise there is no [other]
significant energy source.




Jan Rasmussen
http://www.tekno.dk/pdf/projekter/p04_Naar_den_billige_olie_slipper_op.pdf